April 30, 2020

UK GAS-Prompt prices flat in subduded trade – Energy & Oil

UK GAS-Prompt prices flat in subduded trade - Energy & Oil

LONDON, April 30 (Reuters) – British prompt wholesale gas prices were flat and slow to trade on Thursday, amid an oversupplied market.

* The day-ahead contract was flat at 13.00 pence per therm by 0817 GMT from the previous settlement.

* Gas for working days next week was also flat at 13.25 p/therm.

* Demand is forecast at around 200 million cubic metres (mcm) and flows at 210 mcm/day, leaving the system oversupplied by 10 mcm, National Grid data shows.

* Gas for power demand is forecast lower due to stronger wind output and liquefied natural gas send-out is slightly higher at 79 mcm/d compared to 71 mcm/d yesterday.

* Peak wind generation is forecast at 7.4 gigawatts (GW) on Thursday and 4.9 GW on Friday, out of a total metered capacity of 15 GW, Elexon data shows.

* The May contract was down by 0.23 pence at 13.02 pence per therm.

* The full impact of the novel coronavirus on gas demand will depend on the length and depth of lockdowns and restrictions, according to consultancy Wood Mackenzie.

* “If current coronavirus restrictions persist for three months, we now estimate that 17.6 billion cubic metres (bcm) of demand will be lost across seven of Europe’s largest gas markets: Germany, UK, Italy, France, Spain, Netherlands and Belgium,” said Murray Douglas, from Wood Mackenzie’s European gas team.

* “This compares to a pre-coronavirus full year gas demand forecast of 371 bcm in 2020 for these markets, which together account for 70% of European gas demand,” he said.

* By the end of March, Europe had a record 57 bcm of gas in storage, further weakening an already oversupplied summer market.

* “Attention is turning to Ukraine’s gas storage facilities as a potential solution. Additionally, we are likely to see increased pressure on LNG suppliers to the European market – most notably from the U.S.,” Douglas added.

* The month-ahead gas price at the Dutch TTF hub was down by 0.10 euro at 5.78 euros per megawatt hour.

* The benchmark Dec-20 EU carbon contract inched down by 0.02 euro to 20.17 euros a tonne. (Reporting by Nina Chestney)

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